Systematic Covered Writing
. . . more than just covered calls . . .
Portfolio Evaluation
October Expiration Friday is behind us for 2006 and it's time to pick out a portfolio and give it the 'once over' yearly review. One of the philosophies the writer adheres to is the idea that in order for an investment style to be truly viable, in needs to function in a variety of market conditions. Let's face it, so far 2006 has been a very good year for equities. If the investment strategy being used has not worked during the 'good times', good luck when things aren't so rosy. Please keep this thought in mind as we look at a set of examples forthcoming dealing with a portfolio that was established in August of 2002.
THE Portfolio: Established on August 22, 2002 with an initial (and current) funding of $48, 467.61. This portfolio is an IRA, so there are no tax issues to discuss at this time. The account is currently not being funded, other than the initial deposit.
THE DATE: October 21, 2006
THE STOCK: CHINA - was established in February of 2004 when the stock was trading at over $11.
THE STRATEGY: The strategy illustrated in this example is Dollar Cost Averaging. One needs to consider this when evaluating selling a position at a loss. This comes to light because here we have a stock that traded below $3 a share even though the original purchase was at $11. If the writer had elected to 'bail' on this position, the loss would need to be made up just to be even. Every time a new stock is selected, it may or may not appreciate. The covered writer's thought is that a stock that has already been 'hammered' has more chance of appreciating that some 'new' position given that the nobody knows factor is a 'given'.
When this position is closed at a profit . . . someday . . . the only loss will have been in the 'value' of the stock during the holding period. Being as writer's cannot control 'value', why not control the process?
THE COMMENTARY: Once again, the benefit of Dollar Cost Averaging should be obvious from the Position Tracker data.
| Systematic Covered Writing | |||||||
| . . . More than just covered calls . . . | |||||||
| SysCW Position Tracker | |||||||
| Historical Data | Open Positions | ||||||
| Stock | Cash | Total Cash | Value as of | ||||
| Date | Strategy | Status | Position | Investment | Generated | Generated | 20-Oct-06 |
| 26-Feb-04 | Initial Stock Purchase | Buy 100 CHINA @ 11.78 | ($1,185.00) | $662.00 | |||
| Current Price | $6.62 | CDC Corporation | |||||
| 26-Feb-04 | Initial Call Option | Sell Sep $10 call @ 3.20 | Expired | $311.48 | |||
| 21-Sep-04 | Dollar Cost Averaging | Buy 100 CHINA @ 5.32 | ($539.00) | $662.00 | |||
| $ CA | 1,724.00 | 200 @ $8.62 | Combined Position | ||||
| 21-Sep-04 | Continued Trade | Sell two Mar $7.50 calls @ .45 | Expired 3/19/05 | $79.99 | |||
| 29-Sep-05 | Dollar Cost Averaging | Buy 200 CHINA @ 3.60 | ($727.00) | $1,324.00 | |||
| $ CA | 2,451.00 | 400 @ $6.13 | Combined Position | ||||
| 29-Sep-05 | Interim Trade | Sell four '07 Jan $5 calls @ .65 | $247.98 | ||||
| Cash in Hand | 26.09% | $639.45 | |||||
Several key thoughts are revealed with this position:
♦ Not only did the writer average the price when the stock was at $5.32, it was repeated when it was at $3.60! ♦ Note that with two Dollar Cost Averaging additions, the cost basis is below the current trading price. ♦ Even though the stock is trading above the current strike price ($5), the call options have not been exercised. ♦ If the writer can roll the $5 option to $7.50, the position will change for 'Interim' to 'Appreciated' because at $7.50, the strike price would be above the $6.13 cost basis. If the strike cannot be rolled Out & Up, then possibly a Combo strategy may be in order. In this case it really depends on what the stock price does over the next two months. Again . . . not the best position in the world, but still . . . not a loss.
Comments, questions and opinions are always welcome . . . rlcoveru@wavecable.com
The Covered Writer
_____Update 2007____
The data, then the comments!
| Systematic Covered Writing | |||||||
| . . . More than just covered calls . . . | |||||||
| SysCW Position Tracker | |||||||
| Historical Data | Open Position | ||||||
| Stock | Cash | Total Cash | Value as of | ||||
| Date | Strategy | Status | Position | Investment | Generated | Generated | 24-Jan-07 |
| 26-Feb-04 | Initial Stock Purchase | Buy 100 CHINA @ 11.78 | ($1,185.00) | $1,012.00 | |||
| Current Price | $10.12 | CDC Corporation | |||||
| 26-Feb-04 | Initial Call Option | Sell Sep $10 call @ 3.20 | Expired | $311.48 | |||
| 21-Sep-04 | Dollar Cost Averaging | Buy 100 CHINA @ 5.32 | ($539.00) | $1,012.00 | |||
| $ CA | 1,724.00 | 200 @ $8.62 | Combined Position | ||||
| 21-Sep-04 | Continued Trade | Sell two Mar $7.50 calls @ .45 | Expired 3/19/05 | $79.99 | |||
| 21-Sep-04 | |||||||
| 29-Sep-05 | Dollar Cost Averaging | Buy 200 CHINA @ 3.60 | ($727.00) | $1,012.00 | |||
| $ CA | 2,451.00 | 400 @ $6.13 | Combined Position | ||||
| 29-Sep-05 | Interim Trade | Sell four '07 Jan $5 calls @ .65 | Rolled 12/20/06 | $247.98 | SysCW 145 | ||
| 20-Dec-06 | Combo Buy Back & RO&Up | Buy four Jan $5 calls @ 3.67 | ($1,480.00) | ||||
| 20-Dec-06 | Dollar Cost Averaging | Buy 100 CHINA @ 8.6299 | ($829.99) | $1,012.00 | |||
| $CA | $3,280.99 | 500 @ $6.56 | Combined 500 Share Position | ||||
| 20-Dec-06 | Appreciated Trade | Sell five '08 Jan $7.50 LEAPS @ 3 | $1,486.70 | ||||
| Cash in Hand | 19.69% | This is a Web Portfolio | $646.15 | ||||
Look at the purchase price of the original shares . . . $11.78 . . . and then look at the third purchase . . . $3.60 . . . and then (please) consider this: The covered writer does not care what the price of the stock is, so long as someone will pay because it is owned! Then, with the effective use of Dollar Cost Averaging realize that this is the current situation:
The writer owns 500-shares of this stock with a net cost basis of $6.56.
The current strike price is $7.50.
The current stock price is $10.12! . . . Dollar Cost Averaging works . . . as long as the time horizon is long enough.
IF this stock were to be sold at the $7.50 strike price, the position would generate approximately $485 in additional profit.
Losing positions are only losers is the investor quits. The problem with quitting, is you have to bet again . . .then what if that one loses? Please note that the writer has no crystal ball. The future will be the future, and the writer tends to use the data from the past as a road map for the future.
Cool . . . . a matter of opinion!
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS EXAMPLE IS NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO INVEST IN CHINA STOCK OR ANY OTHER EQUITY. THE INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT SIMILAR TRANSACTIONS CAN BE EXECUTED IN THE FUTURE. INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET INVOLVES RISKS, DO SO ONLY WITH A KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS INVOLVED! STRATEGIES INVOLVING TAX ISSUES SHOULD BE DISCUSSED WITH YOU TAX PROFESSIONAL.
The information provided above is for informational purposes only, and no mention of a particular security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand that the Covered Writer will not advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the information available on this website may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Always remember that past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
These are the terms of use. Why are they here? Because the examples provided are real. The transactions actually took place. The dates are real, the positions are real. Some transactions will have been executed on the day you receive the email. What you are agreeing to, is the fact that in no way is it being suggested that you can, or should, enter a similar position. Why? Because that would be providing investment advice and the Covered Writer is not authorized to do that. There is also no guarantee that similar transactions could be executed at any time in the future. Only licensed brokers are allowed to provide investment advice. Therefore, you are agreeing that the preceding example was provided for 'educational purposes' for the sole purpose of illustrating the Systematic Covered Writing strategies.
Thank you!
SYSTEMATIC COVERED WRITING
Copyright © 2006. All rights reserved.
Revised: 04/15/07